It all comes down to tonight. Group C of the African World Cup qualifiers reaches its dramatic conclusion, with South Africa, Benin, and Nigeria still in the race for top spot and automatic qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. After nine matches, Bafana Bafana sit second with 15 points, two behind leaders Benin and just one ahead of Nigeria. With everything still to play for, the permutations are clear: Hugo Broos’s men must win and hope the result in the other fixture goes their way.
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The Permutations
If South Africa beat Rwanda:
Bafana rise to 18 points. But they don’t control their own destiny, they must hope Benin lose to Nigeria.
- If Benin lose, South Africa would overtake them and top the group.
- If Benin draw, they finish on 18 as well, and Benin’s edge in goal difference/head-to-head would likely see them remain ahead.
If South Africa draw with Rwanda:
They’ll end with 16 points, which is not enough to surpass Benin, who already hold 17 (or more, depending on their match). So a draw effectively rules out the top spot for Bafana, their only outside hope would be a Benin loss, but even then, they cannot catch them outright.
If South Africa lose:
Their qualification chances are over. They’ll remain behind Benin, and Nigeria (if they win) could leapfrog them entirely.
It’s simple: win, and hope. Bafana Bafana have shown flashes of resilience throughout this qualifying campaign, but tonight demands composure, ruthlessness, and belief. For the first time since 2002, a World Cup return is within touching distance, if everything falls their way.
