Nations League 2026/27: Italy vs France Prediction

Two European heavyweights collide at the San Siro on Thursday evening as Italy welcome France for a crucial UEFA Nations League encounter, with both nations looking to strengthen their positions ahead of the knockout stages.

ALSO READ: Nations League 2026/27: England vs Croatia Prediction.

Roberto Mancini’s return to the Italian national team has brought renewed optimism following the Azzurri’s disappointing failure to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. However, Thursday’s encounter represents arguably his toughest challenge since returning to the dugout.

France, meanwhile, have enjoyed an impressive start to life under Zinedine Zidane, remaining unbeaten in their opening four Nations League fixtures. With Les Bleus leading Group 1 on ten points, three ahead of Italy, victory in Milan would guarantee them top spot.

Having played out a 1-1 draw in Paris last month, another closely contested encounter could be on the cards.

Betting Preview

Italy appear to be rediscovering their confidence under Mancini, who previously guided the Azzurri to European Championship glory in 2021.

His second spell began with a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Belgium, but subsequent performances have demonstrated significant improvement. Italy responded with an emphatic 4-1 victory over Turkiye before earning a hard-fought draw against France in Paris.

The Azzurri then defeated Turkiye 3-1 in Bologna, with Gianluca Scamacca, Riccardo Calafiori and Francesco Pio Esposito finding the net. Those results have lifted Italy into second place in Group 1, although they remain just one point ahead of third-placed Belgium.

Mancini has also introduced several exciting young players into his squad, including AC Milan’s in-form Alphadjo Cisse and Como playmaker Mattia Liberali. Cisse has been particularly impressive at club level this season, while Liberali’s performances have earned him an opportunity to establish himself in the senior international setup.

However, Italy will be without Roma defender Gianluca Mancini, who withdrew through injury. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean are also unavailable, leaving the Italian coach with several selection decisions.

The hosts will therefore rely heavily on the experience of Alessandro Bastoni, Nicolo Barella and Sandro Tonali, while captain Gianluigi Donnarumma could have a crucial role against France’s dangerous attack. The goalkeeper was instrumental in securing October’s draw, making seven saves to deny Les Bleus.

France, meanwhile, have enjoyed an excellent Nations League campaign under Zidane, winning three of their opening four matches.

Les Bleus began with consecutive 1-0 away victories over Turkiye and Belgium before drawing against Italy. They followed that result with an impressive 4-1 victory over Belgium, strengthening their position at the top of the group.

Kylian Mbappe remains France’s biggest attacking threat, with his movement, pace and finishing ability capable of troubling even the most organised defences. The Real Madrid superstar is expected to return to the starting lineup after recovering from injury, providing Zidane with a significant attacking boost.

Michael Olise has also been outstanding throughout the competition, contributing four goals and two assists in four appearances. Alongside Desire Doue and Rayan Cherki, the Bayern Munich winger gives France an abundance of creativity in the final third.

However, France will be without Ousmane Dembele, while Pierre Kalulu has also withdrawn through injury. Dayot Upamecano is available again after serving a suspension, strengthening Zidane’s defensive options.

With Italy enjoying home advantage and France boasting superior attacking quality, Thursday’s encounter promises to be an intriguing tactical battle between two former international superstars now managing their respective nations.

Recent Form & Stats

• Italy are second in League A Group 1 with seven points from four matches.
  
• The Azzurri have recorded two wins, one draw and one defeat in the competition.
  
• Mancini’s side are unbeaten in their previous three Nations League matches.
  
• Italy have scored eight goals and conceded five in their opening four fixtures.
  
• Italy held France to a 1-1 draw in Paris in October.
  
• The Azzurri have conceded in each of their last seven Nations League matches.

• France lead Group 1 with ten points from four matches.
  
• Les Bleus have recorded three victories and one draw in the Nations League.
  
• Zidane’s side have scored seven goals and conceded just two.
  
• Les Bleus have kept clean sheets in both of their Nations League away matches this campaign.
  
• France are unbeaten in five consecutive Nations League matches, including their third-place play-off victory over Germany in 2025.
  
• Michael Olise has registered six goal involvements in four Nations League appearances this season.

Best Bets & Prediction

Prediction: France to win at 1.84.

Best Bet: Under 3.5 total goals at 1.53.

Alternative Bet: Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 1.82.