Former lightweight title challenger Renato Moicano meets ascending Australian Tom Nolan in the main event of UFC Vegas 123 at the Meta APEX on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.
The co-headliner at the UFC’s Las Vegas base will see Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith bring the heat in a welterweight fire-fight, while a second bout at 170 pounds pits Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani against Farman Hasanov.
Plus, Ode’ Osbourne faces Cody Durden in a flyweight affair, and Yana Santos and Luana Santos square off in a clash of top 10 bantamweights.
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MAIN CARD:
Sunday, November 1, 2 AM SAST
Renato Moicano (1.76) v Tom Nolan (2.07) (Lightweight)
Actions speak louder than words, especially in combat sports.
Ever-game veteran Moicano (21-7-1) made an emphatic statement in his last performance, proving he is far from done by bringing surging Scotsman Chris Duncan’s momentum to a screeching halt.
A mainstay in the lightweight elite, “Money” was on a four-fight win streak before he accepted an opportunity of a lifetime to fight for the title as a late replacement for Arman Tsarukyan last January.
It was not to be for the Brazilian, as he was submitted by then-champion Islam Makhachev in the first round, and dropped a decision to Beneil Dariush six months later.
Suddenly, the vultures came circling and rather than facing another big-name player, Moicano was matched up with Duncan, an unranked prospect who’d won four fights on the trot.
An underdog with the bookies, Moicano made it clear that he was not to be counted out as he got back in the win column by second-round submission (the 11th tapout victory of his career) in April.
Now he has to defend his No. 11 ranking against another young and hungry up-and-comer.
Moicano has been in the UFC longer than Nolan has been a mixed martial artist. The Brazilian made his UFC debut in 2012, whereas Nolan had his first amateur fight in 2016.
Nolan is 11-1 as a pro with five knockouts and one submission, with his lone loss coming by TKO against Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut in 2024. He’s won all five of his fights since then and most recently beat Farès Ziam on the scorecards in June.
An extremely tall 155-pounder at 6’3″, his four-inch height advantage and slight reach advantage will give him added confidence, as will the fact that he’s the younger man by 11 years and has a solid understanding of how to fight at range against a seasoned grappler like Moicano.
That said, Moicano’s vast experience is invaluable, and he’s a big step up in competition for his 26-year-old foe, who hasn’t fought any of the established names in his climb to No. 14 in the rankings.
Moicano should use his veteran smarts and familiarity with the spotlight in what is his sixth UFC main event to derail first-time headliner “Big Train”.
Prediction: Moicano by submission.
Best Bet: Moicano by submission at 2.85.
Alternative Bet: Moicano at 1.76.
Randy Brown (3.10) vs Jacobe Smith (1.37) (Welterweight)
All eyes will be on Smith in the co-main event.
The confidence-fuelled prospect happily replaced Carlos Leal on short notice and is eager to extend his flawless record to 14-0 with a win this weekend.
It’s very rare to see a replacement fighter head into a bout as the favourite, given that they hadn’t had a full camp like their opponent. Smith is heavily tipped to triumph, and with good reason.
“Cobe” is a killer, with all but two of his wins coming by stoppage, including 10 knockouts. He’s on a seven-fight finish streak and needed just 92 seconds to get Bruce Whitehead out of there earlier this month.
As a veteran of 22 Octagon outings, Brown (20-8) could be his trickiest test yet, but in saying that, the Jamaican is coming off back-to-back losses. Even with all of his experience, “Rude Boy” is in for a tough night as Smith looks set to shine.
Prediction: Smith by knockout.
Best Bet: Smith by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.31.
Yana Santos (3.10) vs Luana Santos (1.37) (Bantamweight)
Streaking bantamweights in the top 10 will look to make their case for a championship opportunity in the featured bout.
Both combatants have won their last three fights to climb the ladder, and only one can continue to build momentum and potentially throw their name in the title conversation.
The bantamweight queen, Kayla Harrison, will defend the title against returning icon Amanda Nunes in the biggest fight in women’s mixed martial arts history in a few weeks, and the winner of this clash could be next in line with a statement performance.
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Yana Santos (17-8) has some big names on her record, including former champion Miesha Tate and Ketlen Vieira. “Foxy” is primarily a striker and is one spot above her opponent in the rankings at No. 6.
A gifted grappler, Santos (11-2) outworked Karol Rosa in her last fight. As the younger fighter by a full decade and with a skillset that has caused her Russian rival problems in the past, the Brazilian should make good on her favourite tag.
Prediction: Luana Santos by decision.
Best Bet: Luana Santos by decision at 1.78.
Ode’ Osbourne (1.95) vs Cody Durden (1.86) (Flyweight)
With 22 finishes between them, these flyweight veterans have demonstrated their ability to end a fight before the final bell, so expect a fast-paced matchup with plenty of potential for fireworks.
Osbourne (13-9) has six knockouts and four submissions to his credit, while Durden (18-11-1) boasts a dozen stoppage wins split evenly between KOs and tapouts.
Both men are desperate to get out of the rut they find themselves in, as Osbourne is 4-2 in his last six fights and “Custom Made” is 5-1.
In what is essentially a pick ’em, I’m siding with “The Jamaican Sensation” as he has a significant six-inch reach advantage.
Prediction: Osbourne by knockout.
Best Bet: Osbourne at 1.95.
Alternative Bet: Osbourne by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.00.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (1.34) vs Farman Hasanov (3.25) (Welterweight)
A pair of welterweights will get the main card underway. Both have a thing for the king of the jungle, as one’s moniker is “Mufasa” and the other’s is “The Lion”.
Lebosnoyani (11-2) was victorious in both of his previous trips to the Octagon, while Hasanov (5-0) won his promotion debut to stay undefeated.
The two factors that should prove decisive in this fight are Lebosnoyani’s experience and well-roundedness.
Prediction: Lebosnoyani by decision.
Best Bet: Lebosnoyani by decision at 3.15.
Alternative Bet: Lebosnoyani by submission at 3.05.
Note: Odds subject to change.
Quintin van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 20 years of experience.
