The Premier League returns on Friday, and predicting which team will lift the trophy isn’t the only difficult outright market bettors have to unravel. The race to be crowned the PFA Player of the Year promises to be just as fascinating.
ALSO READ: Premier League 2026/27 Golden Boot: Outright Favourites.
Erling Haaland heads the market at 5.00, with Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes his closest challenger at 6.50. Arsenal’s title-winning duo Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka are available at 9.00 and 13.00 respectively, while Manchester City’s Rayan Cherki rounds out our five leading contenders at 15.00. Haaland is also the favourite across the wider market ahead of the new campaign.
With Arsenal defending their first Premier League title in 22 years, Manchester City beginning life after Pep Guardiola and Manchester United attempting to build on last season’s revival, there are compelling cases throughout the market.
So, who represents the best bet?
Erling Haaland – 5.00
There aren’t many individual awards Haaland can’t realistically win when he enters a Premier League season fit.
The Manchester City striker remains the most devastating goalscorer in English football and comes into the new campaign as the overwhelming 1.67 favourite for the Golden Boot. That naturally makes him a leading PFA contender because a 30-goal season, particularly if accompanied by a City title challenge, would make him extremely difficult for his fellow professionals to ignore.
Haaland’s problem is that we’ve become accustomed to his ridiculous numbers. He can score 25-plus league goals and it almost feels normal, meaning he may need an exceptional campaign rather than merely another excellent one to separate himself from midfielders who dominate matches in different ways.
There is also considerably more uncertainty around City this season. Guardiola has left after a decade in charge, and Enzo Maresca has inherited a squad undergoing significant change. Rodri, Bernardo Silva, John Stones and Nathan Aké have departed, while record signing Elliot Anderson has arrived as part of the rebuild. City also enter the league season after being comfortably beaten 3-0 by Arsenal in the Community Shield.
If Maresca’s first City team is going to challenge Arsenal immediately, Haaland will almost certainly be central to it. A fourth Golden Boot combined with a serious title push could make the Norwegian extremely difficult to beat in this market.
Bruno Fernandes – 6.50
If this market were based purely on what happened last season, Fernandes would arguably deserve to be favourite.
The Manchester United captain produced an extraordinary individual campaign, scoring eight goals and registering a record 21 assists as United finished third and returned to the Champions League. He created 132 chances, a staggering 43 more than the league’s next-best player in that category.
His performances earned him the Premier League Player of the Season and Football Writers’ Association Footballer of the Year awards, demonstrating just how influential he was. He was essentially the creative heartbeat of United’s resurgence.
That makes 6.50 extremely interesting. United begin a new chapter under Michael Carrick, and the expectation is no longer simply to improve. After finishing third, they need to demonstrate that they can move closer to Arsenal and City. If Fernandes can produce anything resembling another 20-assist campaign while United become genuine title contenders, his PFA case will be enormous.
There is, however, some uncertainty surrounding his future heading into the season. Reports this week claim contract renewal talks have stalled, although Fernandes remains a United player going into the opening weekend.
Assuming that situation doesn’t become a distraction, Fernandes has virtually everything you’d want in a PFA candidate. He’s captain, creator, goalscorer, set-piece taker and the central figure in one of the league’s biggest teams.
At a significantly higher price than Haaland, there is plenty to like.
Declan Rice – 9.00
If Arsenal successfully defend their Premier League crown, there is a very realistic scenario in which Declan Rice emerges as their leading PFA candidate.
Rice was instrumental in last season’s title triumph and was one of three Arsenal players nominated for the PFA award alongside Gabriel and David Raya. He has developed far beyond the defensive midfielder Arsenal signed from West Ham, becoming one of the league’s most complete midfielders.
His ability to influence matches in virtually every phase is what makes him particularly appealing in a player-voted award. Rice can protect Arsenal’s defence, progress possession, carry the ball through midfield, deliver from set pieces and increasingly contribute in the final third. Fellow professionals understand the value of that all-round influence even when it isn’t always captured by goals and assists.
Arsenal also enter the campaign from a position of strength. They’re champions for the first time since 2004 and have added Bruno Guimarães and Christos Tzolis to a squad already capable of winning the league. Their emphatic 3-0 Community Shield victory over City only reinforced their status as the team to beat.
The difficulty for Rice is competition from his own teammates. Arsenal have several players capable of producing award-winning seasons, and votes could naturally be split between Rice, Saka and others if the champions enjoy another excellent campaign.
At 9.00, however, Rice is arguably priced generously for a player who could be the midfield heartbeat of another title-winning team.
Bukayo Saka – 13.00
Saka at 13.00 immediately catches the eye.
The England international has been one of Arsenal’s most important players for years, but entering a season as defending Premier League champions changes the narrative. Arsenal are no longer trying to prove they can reach the summit. The challenge now is staying there.
Saka will again be central to that effort. He’s Arsenal’s primary threat from the right, a major source of goals, assists, and one of the players opposition teams build entire defensive plans around. He and Rice were both included in several selections for last season’s best Premier League XI, reflecting their influence on Arsenal’s championship campaign.
The argument for Saka winning the PFA award is relatively straightforward. If Arsenal retain the title and he produces a career-best attacking season, he will have the numbers, team success and profile required to win the vote. At 24, he’s also entering the period when elite attackers often move from consistently excellent to genuinely dominant.
That’s what needs to happen for this bet to land. Saka is already recognised as one of the league’s best players, but he probably needs a season that makes him the defining attacking player on the league’s best team.
Something approaching 25 combined league goals and assists alongside another Arsenal title would make 13.00 look very big indeed.
Rayan Cherki – 15.00
Cherki might be the most fascinating selection of the five.
The Frenchman already demonstrated his enormous ability during his first Premier League campaign and enters 2026/27 with an opportunity to become an even more important figure at Manchester City. He was among the players considered in the wider Player of the Year discussion last season and has quickly established himself as one of the league’s standout creative talents.
City’s summer changes could actually strengthen his individual case. Guardiola is gone, Rodri has left for Barcelona and Bernardo Silva has also departed, meaning the identity of City’s next great team is still being established. Maresca will need new creative leaders, and Cherki has the technical ability to become one of them. The Guardian’s season preview specifically identifies him as one of the players who could provide attacking inspiration alongside Phil Foden and Haaland.
There is a path to the award at 15.00. If City adapt quickly under Maresca and challenge for the title, Cherki could produce the type of goals-and-assists campaign that turns him from exciting talent into one of the Premier League’s biggest stars.
The question is whether he’ll be City’s most influential player. Sharing a team with Haaland makes that difficult, while the post-Guardiola transition creates more uncertainty than you’d normally associate with City.
Still, 15.00 is an interesting price for a player with genuine breakout potential.
What Usually Makes A PFA Player Of The Year?
This is an important distinction when assessing the market.
The PFA Players’ Player of the Year isn’t simply awarded to the Premier League’s leading goalscorer. Because professional footballers vote for the winner, performances that command the respect of opponents can carry significant weight.
Mohamed Salah’s 2024/25 triumph is a perfect example of when everything aligns. He scored 29 league goals, registered 18 assists and helped Liverpool win the Premier League, becoming the first player to win the PFA award three times.
Team performance therefore matters. A brilliant player can win without being part of the champions, but being the standout performer in a title-winning side creates an extremely compelling narrative.
That is why Arsenal’s title defence matters so much to Rice and Saka, why City’s performance under Maresca will influence Haaland and Cherki, and why United taking another step forward could make Fernandes particularly dangerous.
| Rank | Player | Odds | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Fernandes | 6.50 | Best Bet |
| 2 | Erling Haaland | 5.00 | Most Likely Winner |
| 3 | Declan Rice | 9.00 | Best Value |
| 4 | Bukayo Saka | 13.00 | Strong Outside Bet |
| 5 | Rayan Cherki | 15.00 | Breakout Candidate |
Best Bet: Bruno Fernandes 6.50
Haaland is the rightful favourite, but Fernandes appeals more at the prices supplied.
Last season wasn’t merely good. It was historically productive from a creative perspective. His 20 assists equalled the Premier League single-season record, while nobody came remotely close to his 132 chances created. He did that while driving United to third place and winning the Premier League’s official Player of the Season award.
The question is whether he can reproduce it.
He doesn’t necessarily need another 20 assists. If Fernandes can reach double figures for both goals and assists while United improve on third place and become part of the title conversation, his case could actually become stronger.
At 6.50, that makes him our preferred selection.
Best Bet: Bruno Fernandes at 6.50.
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