UEFA Nations League: France vs Italy Prediction

Two European heavyweights collide at the Stade de France on Friday night as France host Italy in Matchday 3 of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League.

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It will be a special occasion for Zinedine Zidane, who takes charge of Les Bleus on home soil for the first time after beginning his reign with consecutive 1-0 away victories over Turkiye and Belgium. France therefore lead Group A1 with a perfect six points and are the only League A side yet to concede in this Nations League campaign.

Italy arrive in Paris with renewed confidence. Roberto Mancini’s second spell started disastrously with a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium, but the Azzurri responded emphatically by beating Turkiye 4-1 away from home.

With France protecting their perfect record and Italy attempting to build momentum, Friday’s clash promises to provide a fascinating indication of where both teams stand under their new coaches.

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Zidane could hardly have asked for a better start as France coach from a results perspective.

His first game produced a 1-0 victory over Turkiye, with Kylian Mbappe scoring the winner before suffering the knee injury that has subsequently ruled him out of Friday’s match. Three days later, Zidane made nine changes against Belgium but France still found a way to win, with Michael Olise producing a brilliant late goal to secure another 1-0 victory.

Two games, two victories and two clean sheets.

France haven’t blown opponents away, but their ability to win difficult away games while Zidane experiments with his squad is encouraging.

The absence of Mbappe is obviously significant. France’s captain remains their biggest individual goal threat, and Les Bleus have scored only twice across their opening two Nations League matches.

However, few international teams can compensate for losing a player of Mbappe’s quality quite like France.

Zidane can still call on Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki and Desire Doue, giving the hosts an extraordinary collection of attacking options. Olise could be particularly important after making the difference against Belgium.

France’s defensive record has arguably been even more impressive.

They are the only League A team yet to concede in the competition and have allowed just 1.9 expected goals across their first two matches, the lowest figure of any League A side.

Italy will provide their biggest attacking examination yet.

The Azzurri desperately needed a response after losing 2-0 to Belgium in Rome in Mancini’s first match since returning as national team coach.

They certainly produced one.

Italy raced into a 3-0 lead inside half an hour against Turkiye, with Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi and Michael Kayode finding the net before Pio Esposito completed a comprehensive 4-1 victory in the second half.

That performance completely changed the mood surrounding the team.

Young striker Esposito is developing into an increasingly important player for the Azzurri, while Sandro Tonali, Frattesi and Bastoni provide established quality through the spine of Mancini’s side.

Italy will, however, be without Giacomo Raspadori, who left the national-team camp after undergoing medical tests following the Turkiye game.

Friday therefore presents a much tougher examination.

France have home advantage, superior squad depth and appear to be adapting quickly to Zidane. Italy showed in Turkiye that they can punish opponents when afforded space, but they are unlikely to receive as many opportunities at the Stade de France.

Recent Form & Stats

• France have six points from six and lead Nations League Group A1 after victories over Türkiye and Belgium.
  
• France beat Turkiye 1-0 in Zidane’s first match as national team coach.
  
• Les Bleus followed that with another 1-0 victory over Belgium in Brussels.
  
• France are yet to concede in this Nations League campaign.
  
• France have allowed approximately 1.9 xG across their opening two matches, the best defensive figure in League A.
  
• Michael Olise scored France’s late winner against Belgium.
  
• Kylian Mbappe is unavailable after suffering a knee injury against Türkiye.
  
• Italy have three points from two games, scoring four goals and conceding three.
  
• Italy lost their opener 2-0 at home to Belgium before responding with a 4-1 away victory over Turkiye.
  
• Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Pio Esposito scored against Türkiye.
  
• Italy have won 20 of the 41 historical meetings, compared with 12 French victories and nine draws.
  
• France have nevertheless lost only three of their last 16 matches against Italy.
  
• The teams’ two most recent meetings both finished 3-1 to the away side during the 2024/25 Nations League.

Best Bets & Predictions

Prediction: France to win at 1.48.

Best Bet: France to win & under 3.5 total goals at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: France to win to nil at 2.64.