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UEFA Nations League 2026/27: Croatia vs Spain Prediction

Nations League Croatia Spain

Croatia will be looking for a massive response when they welcome world champions Spain to Stadion Poljud in Split in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday night.

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Slaven Bilic’s side head into the clash after suffering a humiliating 7-0 defeat to England on Saturday, the heaviest loss in Croatia’s history. It followed a 4-1 defeat to Spain just days earlier, leaving the hosts with plenty to fix ahead of the return fixture.

Spain, meanwhile, are flying. La Roja have won all three of their Nations League matches, are on a 10-game winning streak and can book their place in the quarter-finals with victory in Split.

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Croatia desperately need to restore some pride after one of the darkest nights in their football history.

The 2018 World Cup finalists were ripped apart by England in Rijeka on Saturday, conceding seven unanswered goals in their record international defeat. Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka both scored twice as the Three Lions ruthlessly exposed a Croatian defence that never came to terms with England’s pace and movement.

3.40
Croatia vs Spain
Over 4.5
Total Goals
Odds are subject to change.
Bet Here

It was particularly concerning because the result wasn’t an isolated defensive collapse. Croatia had conceded four against Spain in their previous fixture, meaning Bilic’s men have shipped 11 goals in their last two games.

Croatia actually started their Nations League campaign positively with a 2-1 victory away to Czechia, but successive heavy defeats have completely changed the mood around the team. They have now scored three and conceded 12 across their opening three matches.

The good news is that it’s difficult to imagine them being as poor again.

Croatia remain packed with experienced players, including Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol, and a return to Split should inspire a reaction. Bilic will surely place greater emphasis on defensive organisation after the England debacle rather than attempting to go toe-to-toe with Spain.

Unfortunately for the hosts, they’re facing arguably the worst possible opponent when trying to rebuild their confidence.

Spain are in sensational form.

1.31
Croatia vs Spain
Under 4.5
Total goals
Odds are subject to change.
Bet Here

Luis de la Fuente’s men followed up their World Cup triumph by winning each of their first three Nations League matches. They opened with a thrilling 3-2 victory away to England before thrashing Croatia 4-1 and beating Czechia 3-1 on Saturday.

That Czechia victory extended Spain’s winning streak to 10 matches, while La Roja are now unbeaten in 41 games.

Lamine Yamal has been one of the stars of the campaign and scored again on Saturday, with Rodri and substitute Mikel Merino also finding the net. Spain’s biggest strength, however, may be the sheer number of options available to De la Fuente. Even when he rotates, there is enough quality throughout the squad to maintain their style and attacking threat.

Spain also know exactly how to hurt Croatia after putting four past them in Seville on 29 September. La Roja dominated that contest and their ability to stretch Croatia’s ageing midfield and defence proved particularly problematic.

The head-to-head record increasingly favours Spain as well. They have won seven of the 12 meetings between the countries, with Croatia winning three and two ending level. Spain have also beaten Croatia 3-0 at Euro 2024, on penalties in the 2023 Nations League final and 5-3 after extra time at Euro 2020.

Spain coach De la Fuente has warned his players not to read too much into Croatia’s 7-0 defeat, describing it as an “anomaly” and insisting the result doesn’t accurately reflect their quality. That’s a sensible approach, as Croatia are unlikely to be nearly as poor in front of their home supporters.

Nevertheless, even a significantly improved Croatia performance may not be enough to stop a Spain side operating at the peak of international football.

Recent Form & Stats

  • Croatia have one win and two defeats from their opening three Nations League matches.
  • Spain have a perfect nine points from nine.
  • Croatia have scored three goals and conceded 12 in the competition.
  • Croatia’s 7-0 loss to England was the heaviest defeat in their history.
  • Croatia have conceded 11 goals across their last two matches.
  • Spain beat Croatia 4-1 in the reverse fixture on 29 September.
  • Spain are on a 10-match winning streak.
  • La Roja are unbeaten in 41 matches.
  • Spain have scored 10 goals in their three Nations League games.
  • Lamine Yamal has scored four goals in this Nations League campaign.
  • Spain lead the overall head-to-head with seven wins to Croatia’s three, with two draws. 

Best Bets & Predictions

Prediction: Spain to win at 1.30.

Best Bet: Spain to win & over 2.5 total goals at 1.57.

Alternative Bet: Spain to win to nil at 2.33.

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