UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song Predictions  

Song Yadong will have a country behind him when he battles Umar Nurmagomedov in a high-stakes bantamweight headliner at UFC Shanghai on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

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A talented quartet of fellow Chinese fighters will join Song in showcasing their skills on the main card at the Oriental Sports Center, namely Yan Xiaonan, Aoriqileng, Sumudaerji and Liu Ce.

Yan will go head-to-head with Denise Gomes in the co-main event; Aoriqileng collides with Kai Asakura, Sumudaerji squares off against Alex Perez, and Liu locks horns with Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Plus, Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas rumble in a clash of promotional newcomers.

MAIN CARD:

Saturday, August 29, 12:00 PM SAST

Umar Nurmagomedov (1.19) vs Song Yadong (4.95) (Bantamweight)

Plenty of proverbial killers are in the stacked bantamweight division.

Russian champion Petr Yan and Georgian juggernaut Merab Dvalishvili will face off in a trilogy bout in October, while American striking sensation Sean O’Malley seized the massive platform that was the historic White House card in June by knocking out Aiemann Zahabi to put himself next in line for the title potentially.

These three, all of whom have worn the crown at 125 pounds, are nightmares to deal with, but so is Nurmagomedov. The cousin of former lightweight champion and Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, the 30-year-old has not only the feared Dagestani wrestling his camp is known for but impressive striking as well.

His ability to seamlessly blend the two, along with his relentlessness, makes him a menace. He might not be the most dangerous bantamweight around, with most of his wins coming by decision, but he’s a man no one wants to fight.

His style and superhuman stamina make him an overwhelming favourite for every fight, and Saturday’s main event showdown is no different. He was even favoured when he challenged then-champion Dvalishvili for the belt last January.

That decision loss remains the only blemish on his record, which now stands at 20-1 after back-to-back wins over Mario Bautista and former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Ranked third, Nurmagomedov is in Shanghai for one reason only – to spoil Song’s party in as emphatic a fashion as possible.

For Song, who’s ranked fifth, this is his sixth main event appearance following a submission victory over Figueiredo in May, which washed away the disappointment of a close decision loss to O’Malley. The 28-year-old has won four of his last six fights, including a victory over Hall of Famer Henry Cejudo, and heads into Saturday with a record of 23-9-1.

“Kung Fu Kid” is swift and smart on the feet; he uses his speed and fight IQ to do damage and competes at a high pace. He’s best known for his elite and powerful striking, which has earned him nine knockouts, but he showed his underrated grappling skills in his tapout win over “Figgy” last time out.

With his speed, agility and power, Song is a threat. However, Nurmagomedov is good enough to stay safe on the feet and is poised to employ a wrestling-heavy strategy to control and frustrate the local favourite and ultimately rain on his parade.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by decision.

Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by decision at 1.58.

Yan Xiaonan (1.67) vs Denise Gomes (2.22) (Strawweight)

Former title challenger Yan (19-5) will look to get back on track in the co-main event.

One of the best strawweights in the world for over a decade, Yan boasts high-profile wins over the likes of Tabatha Ricci, former champion Jessica Andrade and current 115-pound queen Mackenzie Dern.

The 37-year-old lost on the scorecards to Virna Jandiroba in her last fight but is still ranked fourth and is undefeated in her native China in the UFC.

One of the younger strawweights making a name for themselves, Gomes (12-3) has strung together a four-fight win streak to break into the rankings. 

The No. 14-ranked Brazilian, whose latest win came over Tecia Torres in November, is a pure striker with solid power. Seven of her dozen victories are by knockout, but only three of those were in the Octagon.  

At 26, “Dee” has a bright future, but she also still has much to learn and doesn’t have the overall skillset yet to beat wily veteran Yan.

Prediction: Yan by decision.

Best Bet: Yan by decision at 1.92.

Alternative Bet: Yan at 1.67.

Aoriqileng (4.40) vs Kai Asakura (1.22) (Bantamweight)                   

There’s a clear gulf in class between the bantamweights set to do battle in the featured bout. Both have fan-friendly styles, but one stands head and shoulders above the other. 

That man is Asakura (22-6), a lethal finisher from Japan with 17 wins by stoppage (including 14 knockouts). Such was his reputation that the former RIZIN standout was given a title shot in his UFC debut in December 2024.

The issue was that it was 10 pounds south of his usual weight class at 125. As a result, he simply wasn’t the same fighter and was submitted by then-champion Alexandre Pantoja.

He stuck around for one more fight at flyweight against Tim Elliot, but with that also ending in a tapout loss, he returned to bantamweight with a bang, knocking out Cameron Smotherman in May.

Aoriqileng (26-13) has never even sniffed a title shot. He’s 4-4 since returning to bantamweight after his own venture at flyweight, was knocked out by Cody Haddon in his last fight, and he’s 40 years old.

With a moniker like “The Mongolian Murderer”, you know he’s dangerous and aggressive, but this fight only ends one way – with him looking up at the lights. 

Prediction: Asakura by knockout.

Best Bet: Asakura by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.51.

Sumudaerji (1.44) vs Alex Perez (2.80) (Flyweight)

These two flyweights will take care of unfinished business after their first meeting in May ended in a no-contest after an accidental low blow.

Sumudaerji (19-7) has turned things around well. After losing three in a row, “The Tibetan Eagle” scored wins over Mitch Raposo, Kevin Borjas and Jesus Aguilar going into the first bout against Perez (26-10).

Perez also took confidence into their previous encounter, having knocked out Charles Johnson to snap a two-fight skid. He’s the more well-rounded offensive fighter, with his 14 finishes split evenly between knockouts and submissions. 

However, Sumudaerji is the better pure striker. He also knows how to maximise his six-and-a-half-inch reach advantage and has solid takedown defence, so he looks set to out-strike Perez and win on points. 

Prediction: Sumudaerji by decision.

Best Bet: Sumudaerji by decision at 2.90.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 2.20.

Liu Ce (1.51) vs Levi Rodrigues Jr (2.58) (Light Heavyweight)

A standout kickboxer in the early stages of his mixed martial arts career, Liu (3-1) will make his UFC debut on Saturday in just his fourth MMA fight.

“The Oriental Dragon” won two titles en route to being crowned K-1 Fighter of the Year in 2024 and has an overall kickboxing record of 18-3 with 14 knockouts. All three of his MMA wins are by knockout as well.

Rodrigues Jr (5-1) is a knockout artist as well. He has a point to prove after losing his UFC debut on the Oklahoma card headlined by Dricus du Plessis and Kamaru Usman. 

That knockout loss to Felipe Franco was the first of his career and came after he served a suspension for a banned substance. “Baby Monster” is not to be taken lightly, but the more sophisticated striker in Liu should be the last man standing.

Prediction: Liu by knockout.

Best Bet: Liu by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.75.

Bilal Hasan (1.12) vs Nilson Rojas (6.40) (Flyweight)

Someone’s 0 has to go in the main card opener between unbeaten flyweight prospects making their UFC debuts. This isn’t a prediction but more so a spoiler – it’ll be Rojas who’ll be eating his first loss.

Proving you can have both style and substance, Hasan rolled into the first week of season 10 of Dana White’s Contender Series with a ton of hype and swagger before promptly finishing Mridul Saikia in 45 seconds to claim a spot on the UFC roster.

A natural-born killer, the 25-year-old “IndoNinja” has won eight straight (all stoppages) since his second pro appearance was halted in seven seconds and deemed a no contest.

What adds to the anticipation for Hasan’s UFC debut this weekend is that he logged all but one of his first 10 bouts — that no contest fight — under the CFFC banner, facing solid competition in the standout promotion.

Just the second fighter from Indonesia to secure a UFC contract, Hasan also carries Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson’s stamp of approval as the Everett, Washington-based flyweight has trained alongside the UFC Hall of Famer numerous times.

Proving things can be both the same and different, Rojas also brings a 9-0 record to Shanghai with seven finishes. However, he hasn’t faced the same level of competition as Hasan on his way up the ranks while fighting in a host of smaller South American promotions.

Bank on Hasan, the biggest favourite on the main card, to win in a big way.

Prediction: Hasan by knockout.

Best Bet: Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.60.

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.18.

Note: Odds subject to change.