UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman Predictions

Hell-bent on getting his middleweight belt back, Dricus du Plessis will be out to make a statement when he squares off against Kamaru Usman in a main event battle between two of Africa’s greatest-ever warriors at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

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Staying in the 185-pound division, former title challenger Jared Cannonier collides with Christian Leroy Duncan in the co-headliner, while Chase Hooper and Mitch Ramirez meet at lightweight.

Plus, top-15 strawweights Tabatha Ricci and Fatima Kline face off, and featherweights Tommy McMillen and Alberto Montes open the main card.

Dricus Du Plessis billboard spotted in South Africa 😂 Only Afrikaans folks would understand. Do you know what it means? 👀 #ufcokc #DDP pic.twitter.com/CheMltfpfS

— Violent Intelligence 🚨 (@Violent_intel) July 14, 2026

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, July 19, 2 AM SAST

Dricus du Plessis (1.42) v Kamaru Usman (2.90) (Middleweight)

The last 11 months have been the longest of Du Plessis’ life.

In August, South Africa’s first-ever UFC champion lost his middleweight championship to the then-undefeated Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319 in Chicago, a decision defeat which marked his first loss in the UFC and snapped his 11-fight win streak dating back to 2019.

Du Plessis burst onto the UFC scene in 2020 and won nine straight fights in the world’s pre-eminent mixed martial arts promotion. He broke new ground by capturing the 185-pound gold with a hard-fought split-decision win over Sean Strickland in 2024 and successfully defended the title twice, against Hall of Famer Israel Adesanya and the man he beat for the gold before being dethroned by “Borz.”

“Stillknocks” made a statement in both of those title defences, as he became the first man to submit “The Last Stylebender” – a former two-time champion – and beat Strickland from pillar to post over five rounds, leaving the outspoken American with a broken nose.

Du Plessis’ title loss was only the third of his 26-fight pro career, but it was more than that. He didn’t just relinquish the belt; he was embarrassed as Chimaev pinned him to the mat and did little actual fighting to ride out a lopsided yet dire decision.

It was the most frustrating and humiliating way possible for Du Plessis’ historic reign to end and left the baddest man in Mzansi with a boulder-sized chip on his shoulder and on a mission to both prove a point and regain the title. For phase one of that mission, he’s on a business trip in Oklahoma City to battle a fellow former African champion.

One of the best welterweights of all time and the former pound-for-pound king, Usman (21-4) reminded everyone of his greatness by dominating Joaquin Buckley after a long layoff last June, ending his surging opponent’s six-fight win streak and claiming his first win in almost four years.

“The Nigerian Nightmare” spent the first half of this year campaigning for a title shot against 170-pound champion Islam Makhachev, but with the UFC going in a different direction, Usman has decided to go big game hunting and face Du Plessis.

This weekend’s main event showdown is the second biggest fight in African mixed martial arts history, behind only Du Plessis and Adesanya’s title bout in 2024, and the winner may well earn a championship opportunity, given both are former champions and hold victories over current kingpin Strickland, who upset Chimaev in May.

Usman, who defeated Strickland by decision back in 2017, only has one prior fight at middleweight, which saw him step up on short notice and give Chimaev all he could handle before dropping a majority decision in 2023.

Forget about the ‘real African champion’ beef (see the link below if you’re unaware of that controversial piece of history) or Du Plessis’ recent claims that Usman needed convincing to agree to fight him. This fight is not personal. For Du Plessis, it’s about getting right back into title contention, and for Usman, it’s an opportunity to earn a shot at becoming a two-division champion.

Du Plessis is the younger, bigger, stronger and more dangerous man with all but three of his 23 wins coming by finish (nine knockouts and 11 submissions). He’s awkward yet highly effective on the feet and a relentless predator with an unbreakable will.

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman Set For UFC Oklahoma City

As a world-class wrestler, Usman is the perfect comeback opponent for him to prove he’s fixed the shortcomings in his grappling game that Chimaev exposed. In his prime, Usman’s wrestling, knockout power, superhuman gas tank and bulletproof defence made him an unstoppable force.

He showed in his last fight that even with his well-documented knee issues and being in the twilight of his career, he’s still one of the best in the world and at 39, this is his last chance to earn another shot at gold.

Ultimately, Du Plessis’ size and strength advantage, and the tireless work he’s put in to shore up his defensive wrestling, should see him exorcise the demons of the last 11 months, add another legendary scalp to his collection and make his case to leapfrog Chimaev and Nassourdine Imavov for the next title shot.

Prediction: Du Plessis by decision.

Best Bet: Du Plessis by decision at 2.85.

Alternative Bets: Du Plessis by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.10 or outright at 1.42.

Jared Cannonier (3.17) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (1.28) (Middleweight)

The co-main event pits a grizzled powerhouse against a rising force in the middleweight division.

A perennial top contender, Cannonier (18-8) challenged then-champion Adesanya for the title in 2022, losing a decision, and hasn’t given up on his dream of securing UFC gold. At 42, though, this is a must-win for the 10th-ranked veteran, who’ll be making his 21st walk to the Octagon.

Known for his knockout power, “The Killa Gorilla” was last in action at UFC 319, headlined by Du Plessis and Chimaev, when he was outpointed by Michael Page, and is 3-3 in his last six bouts, with one of those wins being over current champion Strickland.

Duncan (14-2) arrived in the UFC as an unbeaten prospect but blew hot and cold to start, going 3-2 in his first five fights inside the Octagon.

However, the hard-hitting Englishman has found his footing since, rattling off four straight wins to move up to 12th in the rankings.

“CLD” is a slick striker who’s technical but likes to mix in unpredictable attacks, which have earned him two spinning knockouts in his current hot streak.

Having started the year with a decision victory over Roman Dolidze, the 26-year-old’s speed and agility should see him pick up the biggest win of his career this weekend.

Prediction: Duncan by decision.

Best Bet: Duncan by decision at 2.16.

Alternative Bet: Duncan by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.95.

Chase Hooper (1.28) vs Mitch Ramirez (3.75) (Lightweight)

Desperation and danger will be in the air when these two lightweights face off in the featured bout. Both are coming off back-to-back losses and have a penchant for finishing fights, so this should be a good one.

Hooper (16-5-1) strung together an impressive five-fight win streak that included victories over veterans Clay Guida and Jim Miller before his fortunes changed.

Stopped in the first round by Alexander Hernandez and Lance Gibson Jr, “The Dream” looks to get back on track by doing what he does best, dragging his opponent to the mat and working his high-level jiu-jitsu game, which has earned him eight submission wins to go along with four knockouts.

Ramirez (8-3) has claimed all but one of his wins by stoppage (five knockouts and two submissions). However, he’s shown precious little in the UFC, losing both of his fights inside the Octagon thus far by knockout.

From what I’ve seen, his takedown defence is suspect, so I expect Hooper to use his experience and superior grappling to get a welcome win.

Prediction: Hooper by submission.

Best Bet: Hooper by submission at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.02.

Tabatha Ricci (4.15) vs Fatima Kline (1.24) (Strawweight)

Ricci (12-4) made a serious splash last July by stopping the highly rated Amanda Ribas but was unable to build on that momentum in her first appearance of 2026, losing a decision to recent title challenger Virna Jandiroba.

Eighth-ranked “Baby Shark”, who’s won seven of her 10 fights at 115 pounds, didn’t want to sit on the loss too long, so when Ribas was forced out of this weekend’s card, Ricci stepped up on short notice.

A former CFFC two-division champion, Kline (9-1) stumbled out of the gate by losing on points to Jasmine Jasudavicius in her UFC debut, but she’s won all three of her fights since. 

“The Archangel” stopped both Viktoriya Dudakova and Melissa Martinez before she outworked veteran Angela Hill in November. High on momentum, bolstered by new corner men and having had a full training camp, she should be the sharper fighter and emerge victorious to break into the top 10.

Prediction: Kline by decision.

Best Bet: Kline by decision at 1.65.

Tommy McMillen (1.71) vs Alberto Montes (2.18) (Featherweight)

Featherweights out to build on spectacular Octagon debuts will get the main card off to an exciting start.

McMillen announced himself on the UFC stage with a bonus-winning knockout of Manolo Zecchini in April to advance his record to a perfect 10-0. With four knockouts and five submissions to his name, “Gun” has a strong all-around game.

Montes (11-1), meanwhile, showed off his slick jiu-jitsu to submit Ricky Turcios, the winner of season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter, in his first Octagon outing.

The Venezuelan is all about grappling, with seven of his wins coming by submission. He may well tap out McMillen, but even if he can’t, he should be able to control things on the ground. I’m happy going with “The Promise” outright as the underdog.

Prediction: Montes by submission.

Best Bet: Montes at 2.18.

Alternative Bet: Montes by submission at 4.15.

Note: Odds subject to change.