Connect with us

MMA

UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry Predictions

UFC 330 Makhachev Predictions

Pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev aims to attain greatness on a whole new level when he defends the welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry in the main event of UFC 330 at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

ALSO READ: Islam Makhachev’s Top 5 UFC Wins Ahead Of UFC 330.

The most prolific female submission artists in UFC history will be entangled in a scramble for the strawweight title in the co-headliner between champion Mackenzie Dern and challenger Gillian Robertson.

Fast and furious flyweights Charles Johnson and Jose Ochoa face off in the featured bout; marauding middleweights Mansur Abdul-Malik and Dustin Stoltzfus square off, and lethal lightweights Edson Barbosa and Esteban Ribovics battle it out.

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, August 16, 3 AM SAST:

Islam Makhachev (1.29) vs Ian Machado Garry (3.65) (Welterweight Championship)

In mixed martial arts, anything can happen.

With so many moving parts, any step and any strike can end a fight. We were reminded of this recently when Conor McGregor blew his knee out against Max Holloway, ending his much-anticipated comeback fight in just 69 seconds.

Given that mixed martial artists are limited only by their imaginations, strikes – whether it be punches, kicks, elbows, knees, jumping or spinning attacks – can come out of anywhere. Thus, even the greatest fighters to ever grace the Octagon get clipped from time to time.

Makhachev, himself, succumbed to this reality in his second UFC bout. Six months after his successful promotional debut against Leo Kuntz, Makhachev got caught and knocked out by Adriano Martins in October 2015.

Since then, however, he’s been the closest thing to bulletproof, as that first-round loss remains the only blemish on his record, which now stands at 28-1, and sparked a remarkable run that has brought him to the brink of immortality.

Unbeaten for the last 10 years and already one of the all-time greats as a two-division champion, a victory this weekend would be his 17th and would see him break the record for the longest winning streak in UFC history, which he currently shares with the legendary Anderson Silva.

The Dagestani ace vacated the lightweight title last May after a divisional record four successful defences in his pursuit of a second strap and became just the 11th double champion in UFC history when he dethroned Jack Della Maddalena by decision in November.

It was pure domination by Makhachev, who squashed any doubt over whether the move 15 pounds north to 170 would be too big of an issue to overcome, as he manhandled Della Maddalena with his renowned wrestling.

That said, he faces his tallest test yet in Machado Garry. A highly technical and uber-confident striker, the 6’3″ Irishman will tower over the 5’10” champion and will have a four-inch reach advantage.

“The Future” is a cerebral assassin as opposed to a knockout artist and uses his range, accuracy and agility to piece up opponents. Every move he makes is calculated and has seen him outsmart and outwork all but one of his foes.

He bounced back from his lone loss to unbeaten Shavkat Rakhmonov with a decision win over Carlos Prates last April, and outpointed former champion Belal Muhammad in November to take his record to 17-1 and cement a championship opportunity.

This fight has been compared to the game-changing clash between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor matchup given the narrative of a rising Irish striker challenging a dominant, pound-for-pound king.

McGregor famously knocked out Aldo in just 13 seconds to be crowned featherweight champion back in 2015, and Machado Garry vows to follow in his countryman’s footsteps and take UFC gold back to Ireland.

The key difference is Machado Garry isn’t in Makhachev’s head like McGregor was in Aldo’s, which brought about the Brazilian icon’s costly mistake. The build-up to this bout has been respectful, whereas McGregor had tortured Aldo with mind games throughout their world tour.

Makhachev is a monster wrestler and a sambo savant with killer instinct and ever-improving striking. A calm and composed history chaser, he hasn’t made a mistake inside the Octagon in a decade, and that’s unlikely to change this weekend.

He might take his time to figure out Machado Garry’s movement on the outside, but ultimately, he’ll force the challenger to fight his fight and will do what seemed impossible and break Silva’s streak.

Prediction: Makhachev by decision.

Best Bet: Makhachev by decision at 2.22.

Alternative Bet: Makhachev by submission at 3.10.

Mackenzie Dern (1.44) vs Gillian Robertson (2.80) (Strawweight Championship)

A golden tangled web will be woven in the co-main event as the most prolific women’s grapplers in UFC history go at it for the strawweight title.

When one thinks of the greatest women’s submission artists in UFC history, two names come to mind – trailblazer Ronda Rousey, and reigning strawweight queen Dern (16-5).

However, despite lacking the grappling accolades of these two titans outside of the Octagon, Robertson (17-8) actually has them beat inside of it, as she holds the record for the most submission wins in UFC women’s history with seven.

Dern is second all-time with five, while Rousey is down in joint-fourth place, as just three of the Hall of Famer’s 10 career submission wins came in the UFC.

Dern has long been the female face of Brazilian jiu-jitsu. A multi-time world champion in the art form, she transitioned to mixed martial arts in 2016, joined the UFC in 2018 and reached the top of the mountain last October.

Her crowning moment came at UFC 321, where she outworked Virna Jandiroba over five rounds to seize the vacant strawweight strap.

Robertson was a bitter onlooker that night, and you can’t really blame her. She’s put in the time and had a longer win streak than Dern and Jandiroba, yet was overlooked for the championship opportunity.

It took another win, a fifth straight over Amanda Lemos in March, for the UFC to finally give her a shot at the title. The Canadian has scratched and clawed her way to this moment, engaging in 20 Octagon battles over nearly a decade, and says nothing will stop her from getting the belt around her waist this weekend.

“The Savage” is dangerous, holding not just the all-time women’s submission record but also the record for the most finishes by a female fighter with 10. However, Dern is super durable and has the grappling prowess to avoid or get out of problematic positions.

It’ll be a hard-fought battle, but Dern should come out of it with her title intact.

Prediction: Dern by decision.

Best Bet: Dern by decision at 2.60.

Alternative Bet: Dern by submission at 3.10.

Charles Johnson (4.15) vs Jose Ochoa (1.24) (Flyweight)

The featured bout is anything but just another fight for Ochoa (9-2). It’s also more than an opportunity to break into the top 15 of the flyweight rankings.

For him, it’s a fight to honour his teammate Allan Nascimento, who shockingly passed away at the age of 34 on 3 August. The Peruvian prospect is 2-2 since joining the UFC and outpointed Clayton Carpenter in his most recent outing in May.

Johnson (19-9) has been the most active fighter on the roster in recent years. This will be his fourth appearance in the Octagon in 2026 and the fifth in the last 12 months.

“InnerG” is consistently inconsistent and has alternated between wins and losses across his last six bouts. He has finished the likes of Lone’er Kavanagh and current champion Joshua Van, but has also looked bang average and is coming off a submission loss to Asu Almabayev.

Ochoa is on the come-up and is the younger, faster fighter with added motivation, so look to him to get his hand raised for his fallen friend.

Prediction: Ochoa by decision.

Best Bet: Ochoa by decision at 2.22.

Alternative Bet: Ochoa by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.70.

Mansur Abdul-Malik (1.15) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (5.55) (Middleweight)

It’s ironic that Abdul-Malik’s record is 9-1-1, as that is what his outmatched opponent needs to call.

The 28-year-old is a nightmare to deal with and is in an especially violent mood after losing his undefeated record last time out. More focused than ever, he has one thing on his mind, and that’s bouncing back in emphatic fashion.

Stoltzfus (16-8) will have to draw on his experience, but even then, things look bleak for the veteran. He’s coming off successive losses to Nursultan Ruziboev and Kelvin Gastelum, and hasn’t tasted victory since 2026.

This is a terrible matchup for him as he’s giving up speed, agility and reach. It’s clear why he’s the biggest underdog on the main card. Bank on Abdul-Malik to get him out of there.  

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by knockout.

Best Bet: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.98.

Alternative Bet: Fight to finish inside the distance at 1.56.

Edson Barbosa (5.00) vs Esteban Ribovics (1.18) (Lightweight)

Barbosa (24-14) is almost as big of an underdog as Stoltzfus.

The Brazilian veteran is an elite striker and boasts one of the best knockouts in UFC history – a spectacular spinning wheel kick KO of Terry Etim back in 2012.

However, he’s well past his prime at the age of 40 and on a three-fight losing streak, most recently being stopped by Jalin Turner in December.

Ten years Aldo’s junior, Ribovics (15-3) is looking to rebound from his submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot in April.

The all-action Argentinian has finished 12 of his 15 wins and welcomes the opportunity to go blow for blow with Barbosa.

These two will put on a show in the main card opener, and when the dust settles, it’ll be “El Gringo” who’s the last man standing.

Prediction: Ribovics by knockout.

Best Bet: Ribovics by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.70.

Note: Odds subject to change.

Quintin van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 20 years of experience.

More in MMA