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UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse Predictions

UFC Hooker Parnasse

French phenom Salahdine Parnasse will seek to make a splash in his Octagon debut against New Zealand savage Dan Hooker in the main event of UFC Paris at Accor Arena on Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

ALSO READ: August’s Top 10 UFC Knockouts.

The co-headliner is also at 155 pounds, where Fares Ziam and Axel Sola go blow for blow in an all-French battle.

Michael Page meets Nursulton Ruziboev at middleweight, and Daniil Donchenko and Punahele Soriano square off at welterweight.

There are also two exciting featherweight fights on the main card; Morgan Charriere faces Felipe Lima, and Losene Keita collides with Muhammad Naimov.

MAIN CARD:

Saturday, September 5, 9 PM SAST:

Dan Hooker (5.40) vs Salahdine Parnasse (1.16) (Lightweight)

It’s been a minute since we’ve had a UFC debut as anticipated as Parnasse’s this weekend.

Such highly hyped appearances from fighters who’ve conquered the world outside of the UFC haven’t always gone as expected. Back in the day, Pride legend Shogun Rua lost his first fight inside the Octagon to Forrest Griffon.

Justin Gaethje and Ben Askren both had to overcome adversity to get past Michael Johnson and Robbie Lawler, while most recently, Patricio Pitbull lost to Yair Rodriguez in his promotional debut.

Thrust straight into a main event, all eyes will be on Parnasse as he makes his highly anticipated UFC debut after leaving KSW as a dominant two-division champion. He went 14-2 in his glittering KSW career and made his United States debut in style in May, crushing Kenneth Cross on the main card of the Rousey vs. Carano event.

“The Lion of Atlas” is a problem on the feet and on the ground and boasts a record of 23-2 with eight knockouts and seven submissions. On a five-fight win streak, this is a showcase moment for the 28-year-old.

Hooker, however, is in France to spoil Parnasse’s party. A perennial contender and a dog of war, the Kiwi is a skillful and lethal striker, and one of the toughest men on the UFC roster.

It’s not the first time Hooker (24-14) will welcome a former champion from another organisation to the UFC. Five years ago, he served as the first test for Michael Chandler and was knocked out by the former face of Bellator in the first round.

Older and wiser, “The Hangman” has pulled off some major upsets before, including over Mateusz Gamrot in 2024 to vault back into the top 10.

Since then, he’s suffered back-to-back stoppage losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Benoit Saint Denis, the first by submission and the second by ground-and-pound.

As a long and lanky kickboxer, he’s a threat to anyone at 155 pounds on the feet. It’s once he hits the ground that he becomes much easier to deal with. At 37, his takedown defence isn’t as good as it was in his prime, so Parnasse’s clearest path to victory is to drag him down to the mat and finish him there.

He also has the speed and explosiveness to knock out Hooker, but there is the element of danger there that I mentioned. Either way, Parnasse should get the finish and immediately establish himself as a contender by taking Hooker’s No. 10 ranking.

Prediction: Parnasse by stoppage.

Best Bet: Parnasse by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Parnasse by submission at 4.10.

Fares Ziam (1.67) vs Axel Sola (2.22) (Lightweight)

The co-main event is an all-French affair that should produce fireworks.

Ziam (18-5) has a significant advantage when it comes to Octagon experience, and he’s 2-0 in Paris. He beat Michal Figlak on points in 2022 and scored a brilliant knockout finish over Matt Frevola in 2024.

He is known as “The Smile Killer”, but it is he who lost his smile when he had his six-fight win streak snapped by Tom Nolan in June.

Sola (12-1-1) made his UFC debut this time last year and maximised the moment with a knockout win over Rhys McKee. He continued to thrill in a back-and-forth battle with Mason Jones in his sophomore showing, but ended up on the wrong side of the judges’ scorecards.

He bounced back from his first career loss in style last time out, submitting Ismael Bonfim in July and will therefore have momentum on his side. Both of these Frenchmen are well-rounded, but prefer to fight on the feet.

This is a step up for Sola, but his speed and output (he lands almost double the significant strikes per minute as Ziam) make him an underdog worth backing. 

Prediction: Sola by decision.

Best Bet: Sola at 2.22.

Alternative Bet: Sola by decision at 3.75.

Michael Page (1.61) vs Nursulton Ruziboev (2.33) (Middleweight)

Page (25-3) is one of the best and most unique strikers in the world, and a showman on top of that. Formerly one of Bellator’s best, he boasts an internet-breaking highlight reel and a big fan base.

The fast and elusive “Venom” beat Kevin Holland in his promotional debut before being shaded by recent welterweight title challenger Ian Machado Garry, who was undefeated at the time.

With no welterweight fight offers coming his way, he moved up to middleweight last year and made serious noise by handing Shara Magomedov his first loss and defeating former title challenger Jared Cannonier.

A lacklustre win over Sam Patterson in March took his UFC record to 4-1 but did nothing to change the growing belief by experts and fans alike that he’s lost his venom.

The highly experienced Ruziboev (37-9-2) is a pure predator boasting no less than 34 finishes (13 knockouts and 21 submissions). Huge for a 185-pounder at 6’5″, the Uzbekistan star has won all but one of his middleweight fights in the UFC by stoppage and is coming off a submission win over Andrey Pulyaev in June.

Ruziboev’s aggressive, go-forward style is exactly what is needed to force the best out of Page. All of the Brit’s UFC opponents have been unwilling to pursue and pressure him – Ruziboev will.

“Black”, who’s on a three-fight win streak, is a handful, but Page’s speed, agility, range management and counter-punching should see him prevail in the most exciting of his UFC fights.

Prediction: Page by decision.

Best Bet: Page at 1.61.

Alternative Bet: Page by decision at 2.34.

Daniil Donchenko (1.39) vs Punahele Soriano (3.00) (Welterweight)

After knocking out Theodor Berggren in June, Donchenko (14-2) took to the microphone and lobbied for an opportunity to compete in Paris.

Revealing he’s fluent in French, he proclaimed: “Paris, j’arrive! On va tout niquer a Paris!” Translation: “Paris, I’m coming! We’re going to f*** everything up in Paris!” That right there tells you what you can expect from this one.

With each successive fight, the welterweight winner of season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter is getting closer to delivering the kind of balanced performance he’s looking.

The all-action Ukrainian has won his last seven fights, including his first three outings in the UFC, but was a bit too bloodthirsty at times, putting himself in unnecessary spots of bother. He was more measured last time out and reaped the rewards, getting the finish (his 11th) without chasing it. 

A long-time middleweight, Soriano (13-4) dropped down to welterweight after back-to-back losses to Roman Kopylov and Dustin Stoltzfus and hasn’t looked back. 

“Puna” is a perfect 4-0 since, including knocking out Uros Medic – who has blown up since then – and outgunning Ramiz Brahimaj in a hard-fought battle in February.

Donchenko won’t be deterred by Soriano’s striking, meaning he’ll walk him down and should get the finish.

Prediction: Donchenko by knockout.

Best Bet: Donchenko by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.92.

Losene Keita (1.28) vs Muhammad Naimov (3.70) (Featherweight)

Desperation will serve as the driving force for these featherweights as both are in need of a victory.

Keita (16-2), in particular, cannot afford to lose, considering that his UFC career has gotten off to a terrible start. First, he squandered a chance to fight a big name in Patricio Pitbull in Paris last year by missing weight, and when he eventually made his UFC debut in March, he lost to Nathaniel Wood by split decision.

Meanwhile, Muhammad Naimov (13-4) was knocked out by Mairon Santos in his last fight and is 2-2 in his last four. “The Hitman” will hope his experience will come through for him.

The younger Keita, however, is notably faster and more dynamic, making “The Black Panther” primed to pick up his first UFC win.

Prediction: Keita by knockout.

Best Bet: Keita by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.88.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.72.

Morgan Charriere (2.49) vs Felipe Lima (1.54) (Featherweight)

Charriere (21-12-1) will be the first French fighter in action on the main card.

No stranger to Paris’ Accor Arena, “The Last Pirate” packed up Manolo Zecchini at the venue in 2023 and Gabriel Miranda in 2024.

He missed last year’s event and hopes his homecoming this weekend results in another inspired win following his knockout loss to Melquizael Costa in Las Vegas last time out.   

After jumping at an opportunity to fight Payton Talbott at 135 pounds and coming up just short against the rising star, Lima (14-2) returns to featherweight, where he’s won his last 13 bouts dating back to 2015.

“Jungle Boy” is a high-level grappler and a polished striker. The Brazilian’s game plan will be to mask his takedowns with strikes and control Charriere on the ground to grind out a win, which is exactly what I expect will happen.

Prediction: Lima by decision.

Best Bet: Lima by decision at 2.28.

Alternative Bet: Lima at 1.54.

Note: Odds subject to change.

Quintin van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 20 years of experience.

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