The Premier League returns this weekend, and while the battle to be crowned champions promises to be fascinating, the race for one of English football’s biggest individual prizes, the Golden Boot, looks considerably more one-sided.
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Erling Haaland starts the new campaign as the overwhelming 1.67 favourite to win the Premier League Golden Boot. It isn’t difficult to understand why. The Manchester City striker scored 27 league goals last season, five more than his closest challenger, and has now finished as the Premier League’s leading scorer in three of his four seasons in England.
Mohamed Salah’s departure from Liverpool has also removed one of Haaland’s most proven rivals. The Egyptian had been one of the few players capable of matching the Norwegian across an entire season, leaving a field of challengers who either have questions surrounding them or still need to prove they can sustain a 25-goal campaign.
Liverpool’s Alexander Isak is rated the closest threat at 10.00, while last season’s surprise package Igor Thiago is 13.25 after scoring 22 league goals for Brentford. Chelsea’s Joao Pedro follows at 14.50 after a 15-goal league campaign and an encouraging start to life under Xabi Alonso.
Haaland is clearly the man to beat.
The more interesting question for bettors is whether backing him at such short odds represents value, or whether one of his challengers can make this race considerably closer than the market expects.
Erling Haaland – 1.67
There isn’t much mystery surrounding why Haaland is odds-on.
He scores goals at a rate Premier League football has rarely seen.
Haaland finished last season with 27 goals in 35 Premier League appearances, adding eight assists. That secured his third Golden Boot in four seasons and took his Premier League career total to an extraordinary 112 goals in 132 appearances heading into the new campaign.
His winning Golden Boot totals tell their own story. Haaland exploded onto the scene with 36 goals in 2022/23, followed it with 27 in 2023/24 and returned to 27 last season after Mohamed Salah interrupted his run in 2024/25.
Three Golden Boots in four seasons.
And he’s still only 26.
There has been major change around him this summer. Pep Guardiola has left Manchester City after a decade in charge, with former Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca taking over. Bernardo Silva, Rodri and John Stones have also departed, while City have broken their club transfer record to sign midfielder Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest.
The managerial change creates some uncertainty, particularly after City’s poor showing in Sunday’s 3-0 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal. Haaland was kept quiet as the champions comfortably outplayed Maresca’s side in Cardiff.
However, there are also reasons to believe Maresca’s arrival shouldn’t hurt Haaland’s output significantly.
City deliberately appointed a coach whose ideas share much with Guardiola’s. Maresca worked within City’s system previously and favours positional play, possession and territorial dominance. City should therefore remain a team that spends long periods around the opposition penalty area and creates a huge volume of chances for its centre-forward.
Haaland’s job isn’t changing.
He needs to finish those chances.
There’s also the small matter of his World Cup form. Haaland scored seven goals for Norway at this summer’s tournament before returning to club duty, another reminder that there has been nothing resembling a decline in his ability to find the net.
The biggest argument against Haaland isn’t footballing.
It’s the price.
Backing a player at 1.67 before a 38-game season carries obvious risk. An injury that keeps him out for two months could transform the race, while City adapting to life without Guardiola introduces an unknown that wasn’t present in previous seasons.
If he stays healthy, however, everyone else is probably playing for second.
Alexander Isak – 10.00
If you’re looking for the player most capable of beating Haaland, Alexander Isak is the obvious place to start. The question isn’t talent, it’s fitness.
Isak’s first season at Liverpool was badly disrupted by a broken leg suffered against Tottenham in December. The injury required surgery and kept him out for several months, with the Swedish striker only returning to the Liverpool squad in April.
That ruined any realistic chance of challenging for the Golden Boot.
This season could be very different.
Isak has been fully involved in Liverpool’s pre-season preparations, something he didn’t have last year following his drawn-out £125 million move from Newcastle. That should give new manager Andoni Iraola the opportunity to build his attack around a fully fit striker from day one.
And Isak’s Premier League pedigree is already established.
Before moving to Liverpool, he scored 23 league goals in 34 appearances for Newcastle in 2024/25, finishing second in the Golden Boot race and earning a place in the PFA Team of the Year.
That’s important when assessing the 10.00 price.
We’re not betting on a promising forward potentially becoming a 20-goal Premier League striker. Isak has already done it. He’s one of the best finishers in European football, comfortable scoring with either foot and capable of creating goals for himself rather than relying exclusively on service.
Iraola’s appointment could help as well.
Liverpool are expected to adopt his aggressive, vertical attacking approach after Arne Slot’s departure. A system built around winning possession and attacking quickly should create opportunities for a mobile centre-forward who thrives when running into space.
The departure of Salah creates another intriguing dynamic.
Liverpool have lost their long-time primary goalscorer. Someone has to absorb a portion of that attacking responsibility, and a healthy Isak is the most obvious candidate.
If he plays 32 to 35 league matches, a return north of 20 goals is entirely realistic.
Whether that’s enough to beat Haaland is another matter.
Igor Thiago – 13.25
If you had predicted before last season that Brentford would produce Haaland’s closest Golden Boot challenger, few would’ve taken you seriously.
Igor Thiago changed that.
The Brazilian enjoyed a spectacular breakthrough campaign, scoring 22 Premier League goals and finishing five behind Haaland. He also set a new record for the most goals scored by a Brazilian in a single Premier League season, surpassing the previous marks established by the likes of Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Martinelli and Matheus Cunha.
It wasn’t simply one purple patch either.
Thiago demonstrated different ways to score throughout the campaign. His physicality made him a major penalty-box threat; he proved capable in the air, and he developed into the focal point of Brentford’s attack. A hat-trick away to Everton in January was one of the standout performances of his season.
That explains why the market isn’t treating last season as a fluke.
At 13.25, Thiago is shorter than several forwards playing for traditional title challengers.
There is, however, a legitimate question about whether he can repeat it.
Producing one 22-goal season is difficult. Doing it again when opponents have spent an entire summer analysing how to stop you is another challenge. Brentford also don’t create chances at the same volume as Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal or Chelsea, meaning Thiago has less margin for error than the forwards at those clubs.
Haaland can have a quiet month and then score eight goals in five matches because City generate so many opportunities.
Thiago doesn’t necessarily have that luxury.
But Brentford’s opening schedule gives him an opportunity to start quickly. Their first five matches include home games against Tottenham and Sunderland, an away trip to Leeds and fixtures against Bournemouth and Chelsea.
There’s also something reassuring about knowing Brentford’s attack is designed to maximise him.
He doesn’t have the same level of competition for goals as forwards at some bigger clubs. When Brentford create a high-quality chance inside the penalty area, there’s a strong probability Thiago is the player they’re trying to find.
Twenty-two goals last season proved his ceiling is considerably higher than many initially believed.
At 13.25, he’s no longer a secret, but he remains a serious contender.
Joao Pedro – 14.50
Joao Pedro might be the most intriguing name among the leading contenders.
The Chelsea forward scored 15 Premier League goals last season, adding five assists, and his influence has continued to grow since arriving from Brighton.
15 goals doesn’t immediately scream Golden Boot winner, but this is a projection market.
You’re betting on what happens next.
And there are several reasons to believe Joao Pedro could take another major step forward in 2026/27. The biggest is Xabi Alonso.
Chelsea have changed managers, and the early signs suggest Joao Pedro could occupy a central role in Alonso’s attack. He scored a nine-minute hat-trick off the bench in Chelsea’s 6-4 pre-season victory over Western Sydney Wanderers in Alonso’s first match in charge. Pre-season performances shouldn’t be overanalysed, but the combination of positioning, movement and finishing was encouraging.
Chelsea should also create enough chances.
They possess an enormous amount of attacking talent, and Joao Pedro’s versatility allows him to operate as the No. 9 or move between the lines. He’s technically stronger than the traditional penalty-box striker and contributes significantly outside the box, which should help keep him on the pitch even when he isn’t scoring.
The concern from a Golden Boot perspective is exactly that versatility.
Haaland is City’s undisputed finisher.
Thiago is Brentford’s focal point.
Isak should be Liverpool’s primary striker.
Joao Pedro could occasionally be asked to facilitate others rather than remain permanently stationed around the penalty area. Chelsea also have multiple players capable of sharing the goals, which can reduce the volume available to any single forward.
Then there are penalties.
Set-piece responsibilities can make an enormous difference in a season-long Golden Boot race. If Joao Pedro becomes Chelsea’s regular penalty taker, his ceiling rises substantially. If those opportunities are shared elsewhere, reaching the mid-20s becomes more difficult.
Still, 15 goals last season at 24 years old suggests there is room for growth.
If Alonso can turn him into Chelsea’s undisputed attacking reference point, 14.50 could look generous.
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