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United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 4

After a quick detour to start their European campaigns, the South African sides will turn their focus back to the United Rugby Championship this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The Bulls, Lions and Stormers kicked off their Investec Champions Cup campaigns while the Sharks started their EPCR Challenge Cup surge last weekend. Now it’s time to resume hostilities in the URC.  

The Sharks and Lions are abroad and will be in action on Friday night. The Durbanites tackle Cardiff in the Welsh capital, while the Lions face Edinburgh in the Scottish capital.  

The Bulls and Stormers will enjoy home ground advantage when they take the field on Saturday. The Herd lock horns with Ulster at Loftus Versfeld and the Capetonians play host to the Scarlets.

ALSO READ: SA Champions Cup Team of the Week – Round 1

Cardiff vs Sharks

Friday, 23 October – 20:45

Colour me impressed. A youthful Sharks side came up huge in their Challenge Cup opener in France last weekend, scoring a last-gasp try after leading most of the match to claim a deserved 40-33 win.

It’s not only the fact that they pulled off the upset but the way in which they did it that was so impressive, showing no fear and expressing themselves after earning the right to do so up front.

Due to the short turnaround, Cardiff also fielded an understrength team in their Champions Cup assignment against the Northampton Saints in England and went down 28-12.

One spot below the Sharks in sixth place, they’ll be fresh and lead the head-to-head stakes 3-2. That said, the Durbanites have won the last two meetings, including a 42-22 away win last year, passed a tougher test last weekend and should receive some Springbok reinforcements.

Thus, I’m backing JP Pietersen’s men to prevail.

Prediction: Sharks by 2.

Suggested Bet: Sharks at 2.31.

Connacht vs Zebre

Friday, 23 October – 20:45

These two teams have disappointed so far, but Connacht at least have one win – a 22-19 success against Benetton. They also turned back a weakened Saracens side 45-36 in the Challenge Cup last weekend.

Bank on them to get maximum points against a Zebre team that are yet to get out of the blocks with four straight losses in all competitions.

Prediction: Connacht by 20.

Suggested Bet: Connacht -18.5 at 1.88.

Edinburgh vs Lions

Friday, 23 October – 20:45

Speak about having the heart of a lion. The Pride did Hyron Andrews and themselves proud with their gutsy display in their first-ever Champions Cup game last weekend.  

They were in the fight against La Rochelle in France for 60 minutes and ultimately succumbed 31-14 in what was a victory in defeat given the tragic circumstances after Andrews’ shocking passing on the eve of the match.

Edinburgh might have lost their Champions Cup opener 27-17, but it was against the record six-time champions Toulouse, so there’s no shame in that.

The Lions have tasted victory in the Scottish capital before, back in 2022 when they triumphed 22-19, and have won four of the six meetings between the teams.

However, Edinburgh are the only unbeaten team left in the URC and top the table for the reason, so Sean Everitt’s charges should get over the line against the seventh-placed Lions.  

Prediction: Edinburgh by 9.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh -7.5 at 1.93.

Bulls vs Ulster

Saturday, 24 October – 13:45

The leading South African side at this early stage of the season, the third-placed Bulls have power in abundance – not just the overwhelming kind in the set pieces and at the gain line, but strike power as well.

That they thumped Stade Francais 56-20 in their Champions Cup opener last weekend despite not firing on all cylinders would’ve been a cause for concern for Ulster and all of their future opponents.

Winless in the URC with two draws and one defeat, 11th-placed Ulster are coming off a morale-boosting 40-21 Challenge Cup win over Zebre, but their URC woes will continue at Loftus Versfeld.

Prediction: Bulls by 19.

Suggested Bet: Bulls -17.5 at 1.82.

Stormers vs Scarlets

Saturday, 24 October – 16:00

The Stormers’ main objective in this, a game they should win comfortably, will be to rediscover their clinical edge both in terms of their discipline and conversion rate after their Champions Cup opener against the Bristol Bears last weekend.

The Capetonians beat a largely Academy team 49-12 in what John Dobson labelled a ‘flat’ performance that included a red card for JJ Kotze and a yellow card for Lionel Zas. The fourth-placed Stormers dismantled the Sharks 39-22 in their last URC game and will look to get back to that kind of dominance on Saturday.

Even though they’ve never lost to the Scarlets and the fact that the Welsh outfit are down in 12th place, the Stormers won’t take them lightly as the visitors have managed back-to-back wins, following up a 27-26 triumph over Benetton with a 47-14 Challenge Cup success.

That focus and respect should see the Stormers produce a quality performance and bag a bonus point win.  

Prediction: Stormers by 24.

Suggested Bet: Stormers -22.5 at 1.93.

Benetton vs Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 24 October – 16:00

Winless after three rounds and coming off an 18-9 loss to Castres in the Challenge Cup, Benetton are reeking of desperation.

Second from the bottom, the Italians will have to live with that stench a while longer as the second-from-the-top Warriors are set to put them to the sword.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 12.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -7.5 at 1.85.

Leinster vs Munster

Saturday, 24 October – 19:00

Irish heavyweights will duke it out in Dublin.

Both are currently in the bottom half of the table. Ninth-placed Munster are 1-1-1, having lost their opener at home to Glasgow (26-20), before beating the Bulls (26-22) and playing to a 26-all draw with Ulster.

For their part, Leinster beat Cardiff (29-5) after an understrength squad returned from a winless two-match tour of South Africa to move up to 10th.   

Meanwhile, both were victorious on the European front last weekend. Leinster crushed Clermont 48-23 away from home, while Munster saw off Racing 92 33-25.

Leinster have won eight of the last 10 derbies between them, but the fact that Munster embarrassed them 31-14 in front of their home fans last season will fuel them and see them make it up to their supporters on Saturday.

Prediction: Leinster by 14.

Suggested Bet: Munster +15.5 at 1.82.

Ospreys vs Dragons

Saturday, 24 October – 20:00

The Dragons are in unfamiliar territory. That might sound like a negative, but in their case, it’s a positive.

A draw (19-all with Benetton), a win (38-26 over the Scarlets) and a loss (38-31 to the Ospreys) – in that order – have the perennial also-rans sitting in eighth position, five spots above the Ospreys.

The Ospreys, though, beat them in their own backyard and will do the double in this rematch.

Prediction: Ospreys by 8.

Suggested Bet: Ospreys -7.5 at 1.82.

Note: Odds subject to change.

Quintin van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 20 years of experience.

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