Nations Championship Predictions – Round 4

The Springboks mean business as they start the second half of the Nations Championship with a clash against Italy in Turin on Saturday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The double world champions lead the Southern Hemisphere standings as one of just two unbeaten teams left in the new international competition featuring the 12 strongest nations, with their arch-rivals, the All Blacks, as the other team yet to taste defeat. France, meanwhile, top the Northern Hemisphere table.

After the opening Southern Hemisphere leg of the competition, the standings are as follows:

Southern Hemisphere

Pos	Team	P	W	L	Pts	PD
1	🇿🇦 South Africa	3	3	0	15	+81
2	🇳🇿 New Zealand	3	3	0	15	+51
3	🇦🇺 Australia	3	1	2	8	+29
4	🇦🇷 Argentina	3	1	2	7	-2
5	🇯🇵 Japan	3	1	2	4	-26
6	🇫🇯 Fiji	3	0	3	0	-96

Northern Hemisphere

Pos	Team	P	W	L	Pts	PD
1	🇫🇷 France	3	2	1	12	+41
2	🏴 Scotland	3	2	1	11	+11
3	🏴 England	3	2	1	10	+48
4	🇮🇪 Ireland	3	2	1	10	-1
5	🏴 Wales	3	1	2	5	-42
6	🇮🇹 Italy	3	0	3	0	-94

The action gets underway in Dublin, where Ireland play host to the Pumas in the only fixture on Friday night.

The Boks-Azzurri encounter kick-starts a jam-packed Saturday that includes clashes between Scotland and the All Blacks at Murrayfield, Wales and Japan in Cardiff, France and Fiji in Lyon and England and the Wallabies at Twickenham.

Ireland vs Argentina

Friday, 6 November – 22:10

The Irish are 6-2 this year, with their two losses coming against France (36-14) in the Six Nations and the All Blacks (40-21) in the Nations Championship.

They’re not the force of recent seasons past but did record notable away wins over England (42-21) and Australia (33-31) and should be far too strong for an injury-hit Argentina who have been bitterly disappointing in 2026.

Prediction: Ireland by 12.

Suggested Bet: Ireland -9.5 at 1.85.

Italy vs South Africa

Saturday, 7 November – 13:40

The Boks are sitting pretty, both in terms of this new competition and in the grander scheme of things.

Emphatic wins over England (45-21), Scotland (42-28) and Wales (43-0) on home soil in July saw them collect a maximum 15 log points and bank a superior points’ difference of 30 over next-best New Zealand atop the Southern Hemisphere standings.

As neat as this new competition is, the Boks’ main objective for 2026 was to win the inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series against the All Blacks. They achieved that mission in style, triumphing 3-1 to solidify their place at the top of the world rankings.

The season is already a success, so the big question now is – how will the men in Green and Gold get up for their four remaining assignments? How much stock do they truly put into winning the Nations Championship, a title that – at least at this early stage – would be nice to have rather than an absolute must.

ALSO READ: Bok Watch: Players in the Spotlight vs Italy

The key to the Boks’ sustained success under Rassie Erasmus is the fact that they never rest on their laurels. Erasmus is all about evolution, setting unique goals for every game that also work towards the ultimate objective of becoming the first team to win three consecutive World Cups next year.

Therefore, even though Saturday’s game in Turin is anything but a blockbuster – given that the Azzurri have beaten the Boks just once in 19 meetings back in 2016 (20-18) – it remains a valuable hit-out. So much so that Erasmus has selected his big guns to set the tone for the tour.

Italy served up two upsets in this year’s Six Nations, stunning Scotland 18-15 and England 23-18, but are winless in the Nations Championship and dead last in the Northern Hemisphere group. They’re on a four-match losing streak and haven’t been competitive against the Boks since their famous victory a decade ago.

Bank on the Boks to overwhelm their hosts. 

Prediction: South Africa by 28.

Suggested Bet: South Africa -25.5 at 1.86.

Scotland vs New Zealand

Saturday, 7 November – 16:10

If it’s eye-catching entertainment you want, then this is the game for you. The meeting at Murrayfield promises to deliver Super Rugby-like fireworks as both teams are all about sexy offence.

Instead of intense, physical Test match rugby, this will be a talent show in which one team – the All Blacks – will try (and succeed) to outdo the other – Scotland – with fast-paced, flair-filled exploits.

In the 33 meetings between the sides, the All Blacks have won 31 and drawn twice, and the current squad do not want to be remembered as the ones who spoiled that proud record.

As the Coke Lite to the All Blacks’ Coca-Cola, Scotland have been more competitive than you’d think in recent years, losing by eight or less in the last four encounters against the Kiwis.

Dave Rennie’s men, however, should put them away by more than that.

Prediction: New Zealand by 11.

Suggested Bet: New Zealand -10.5 at 1.86.

Wales vs Japan

Saturday, 7 November – 18:40

Wales were the Six Nations wooden spoonists again this year, but at least they were able to avoid a third straight winless campaign when they beat Italy 31-17 in the final round.

Their only other wins this season were over the Barbarians (33-31) and Fiji (39-24), the latter being their Nations Championship opener. They suffered heavy defeats to Argentina (35-21) and South Africa (43-0) in their two games since.

The big news for Japan this year is that they managed to win the Pacific Nations Cup after edging Fiji 20-15 in the final. Zoom out, however, and you’ll see that the Brave Blossoms have won just three of their nine games in 2026.

Japan have won two of the last five meetings between these teams and Wales just managed to eke out a 24-23 win the most recent encounter, so I expect some money to come in on Japan.

Having said that, the Dragons have some quality players this time around and should get it done at home.

Prediction: Wales by 6.

Suggested Bet: Japan +15.5 at 1.89.

France vs Fiji

Saturday, 7 November – 22:10

Is this a mismatch? Yes. But the hook is that Jake White is now at the helm of Fiji.

The former World Cup-winning Bok coach took up the role last month and is 1-0 after starting his tenure with a 34-28 win over Japan in Tokyo. Not even White will be able to whip up a miraculous win in Lyon, though.

Six Nations champions France will storm to victory to consolidate their place at the top of the Northern Hemisphere table ahead of next weekend’s colossal clash with the Boks.

Prediction: France by 26.

Suggested Bet: France -24.5 at 1.85.

England vs Australia

Sunday, 8 November – 17:10

Two teams that have been guilty of believing their own hype only to receive a reality check clash at Twickenham to conclude the weekend’s action.

England were convinced that they would win this year’s Six Nations, entering the competition on an 11-game winning streak, only to combust spectacularly and manage just a single win over dreadful Wales. For them, at least, there has been an upside, as they won their last two games of the Nations Championship against Fiji (73-8) and Argentina (31-24).

Les Kiss took over as Wallabies coach after the first leg of the Nations Championship, which saw the Aussies go down to Ireland (33-31) and France (42-26), and steered them to a nice little unbeaten run that included a 42-38 triumph over the Boks that had them talking big.

Of course, the South African side they beat were an understrength one, and the back-to-back Bledisloe Cup bashings by the All Blacks brought them back down to earth.

Kiss can only do so much; he has inherited the primary problem facing Australian rugby – a lack of depth, and that’ll take time to chip away at. Golden oldies like Kurtley Beale might help, but they’re still bound to struggle up North, starting with this clash.

Prediction: England by 8.

Suggested Bet: Australia +8.5 at 1.91.

Note: Odds are subject to change.