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UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 Predictions

UFC 331 Van Pantoja

The two best flyweights in the world will settle unfinished business when Joshua Van defends the title against the man he dethroned in shocking fashion, Alexandre Pantoja, in the main event of UFC 331 in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The co-headliner at the Crypto.com Arena is a possible lightweight title eliminator between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy, while featherweight veterans Patricio Freire and Dooho Choi collide in the featured bout.

Plus, undefeated light heavyweight prospect Iwo Baraniewski takes on battle-tested Alonzo Menifield, and Olympic gold medallist Gable Steveson squares off against Sean Sharaf in the main card opener.

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, September 20, 3:00 AM SAST

Joshua Van (1.74) vs Alexandre Pantoja (2.10) (Flyweight Championship)

On the night of December 6, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Van (17-2) went from ultimate underdog to the second-youngest champion in UFC history.

A blue-chipper who’d started his pro mixed martial arts career just four years prior, “The Fearless” continued his meteoric rise and showed his hunger for greatness by bagging four wins last year.

Exciting and heavy-handed, he opened his stellar 2025 campaign with wins over Rei Tsuruya (decision) and Bruno Silva (knockout) in March and June, and scored a breakthrough victory over the vaunted Brandon Royval in a Fight of the Year candidate just three weeks after having bested Silva.

His upset win over the then-No. 1-ranked Royval earned “The Fearless” a shot at the flyweight title, a dream yet daunting date with champion Pantoja (30-6), who had ruled the division with an iron fist.

When the time came for their UFC 323 co-headlining clash, Van’s coronation proved shocking as Pantoja suffered a freak injury just 26 seconds into the fight. Van had caught a high kick and pushed Pantoja backwards. In his attempt to post with his right hand, Pantoja suffered a gruesome elbow injury, and just like that, the Brazilian’s reign was over.

While not the way he would’ve liked to win the title, Van nevertheless became the second-youngest champion in promotional history at 24 years, one month and 27 days, behind only the consensus greatest of all time, Jon Jones, who won the light heavyweight title at 23 years, eight months and one day back in 2011.

Van, who is also the first fighter from Myanmar to win UFC gold, retained the title with a fifth-round knockout of Tatsuro Taira in May to solidify himself as champion in the eyes of many who’d thought his win over Pantoja was a fluke. Yet, there’s still a sizeable portion of fight fans who feel he’s not the ‘true’ champion until he ‘legitimately’ beats Pantoja. 

With the Brazilian now fully recovered, the pair head back to the fight capital of the world to prove who the undisputed king is.

Pantoja had seized the strap in July 2023 and had a dominant title reign, turning back four challengers in Royval, Steve Erceg, Kai Asakura and Kai Kara-France.

Scarily for the rest of the division, “The Cannibal” got better with every outing and separated himself from the rest as the greatest flyweight of all time. On an eight-fight win streak before disaster struck last time out, he’s arguably the most complete 125-pounder alive.

His striking is at a very high level, he’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and his fight IQ is through the roof. He has eight knockouts to his name, although the last came over Matt Schnell in 2019, and he’s like a Venus flytrap on the ground, which has earned him 12 submissions.

Van now has the swagger of a champion and is the favourite going into the rematch after he entered the first meeting as a 2.80 underdog. He’s the real deal, but Pantoja’s pedigree is peerless at 125.  

As capable and as crisp as Pantoja is on the feet, staying standing favours the Van. Pantoja’s safest path to victory is to drag Van into his world on the ground, where he has a major and what should prove to be decisive advantage.

Prediction: Pantoja to use his experience and superior grappling to control the fight and regain the gold.

Best Bet: Pantoja at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Pantoja by submission at 3.95.

Arman Tsarukyan (1.28) vs Mauricio Ruffy (3.70) (Lightweight)

The co-main event is a classic clash of styles and a possible lightweight title eliminator.

In Tsarukyan (23-3), you don’t just have any wrestler, you have the best wrestler in the star-studded 155-pound division. The second-ranked Armenian, who has world-class jiu-jitsu as well, has been in the dog box with the UFC ever since he pulled out of his scheduled headlining title bout against Islam Makhachev at the 11th hour due to an injury niggle last January.

He’s only fought once since then, submitting Dan Hooker in November, but has this year done an excellent job of rehabilitating his image by stepping into and staying in the limelight. He’s done so by linking up with mixed martial arts influencer Nina Drama and an impressive 7-0 run in Real American Freestyle. 

From a wealthy family, he’s adopted the nickname “Batman” and has an opportunity to stake his case for a title shot against a viper-like Brazilian looking to punch his own ticket to a championship opportunity.

In seventh-ranked Ruffy (14-2), you have the highest level of striker. He’s absolutely lethal and laser-accurate, with all but one of his wins coming by knockout. 

Tall and rangy, he has a Conor McGregor-like striking style and made light work of Michael Chandler at the White House in June. He’s a sniper with flair, a nightmare on the feet due to his precision, unpredictability and wide array of weapons.  

If anyone can catch Tsarukyan coming in and turn his lights off, it’s Ruffy. However, Tsarukyan will be patient and disciplined and will use his tactical prowess and grappling expertise to ground and eventually submit Ruffy to make it six in a row inside the Octagon.

Prediction: Tsarukyan by submission.

Best Bet: Tsarukyan by submission at 3.40.

Alternative Bet: Under 3.5 rounds at 1.51.

Patricio Freire (3.20) vs Dooho Choi (1.35) (Featherweight)

Decorated featherweight veterans go to war in the featured bout.

One of Bellator’s all-time greats, Freire (37-9) stumbled when tasked with making the step up to the UFC last April, losing his Octagon debut to Yair Rodriguez by decision.

Better known as “Pitbull”, the former two-weight Bellator champion got his first UFC win against Dan Ige in his next outing, but lost last time out to another former Bellator star in Aaron Pico.

Choi (17-4-1) made his UFC debut all the way back in 2014 and is a Hall of Famer thanks to his legendary battle against Cub Swanson a decade ago.

Since returning from injuries and mandatory military service, “The Korean Superboy” has been in phenomenal form. After fighting Kyle Nelson to a majority draw in his comeback bout in 2023, he’s delivered three consecutive knockout wins over Bill Algeo, Nate Landwehr and Daniel Santos.

It’s clear that “Pitbull” is not the fighter he was in his prime, so Choi is primed to continue his hot streak.

Prediction: Choi by knockout.

Best Bet: Choi by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.70.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.80.

Alonzo Menifield (2.90) vs Iwo Baraniewski (1.42) (Light Heavyweight)

Don’t blink when these two explosive light heavyweights throw down.

A veteran with 14 finishes, including 11 knockouts, Menifield (18-6-1) defied the odds when he went into enemy territory and stopped Zhang Mingyang in Macau in May.

“Atomic” is not the type to expect a reward from the matchmakers, but they could’ve been kinder to the veteran than to put him up against the unbeaten Baraniewski after pulling off such an upset.

A Polish wrecking ball, “Rudy” boasts a 100% finish rate, including seven knockouts, and not one of his first three UFC opponents – Ibo Aslan, Austen Lane and Junior Tafa – lasted 90 seconds. 

A perfect 9-0, he’s never seen a second round and as the younger man by more than a decade, he should be too fast for Menifield and add him to his list of victims.  

Prediction: Baraniewski by knockout.

Best Bet: Baraniewski by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.84.

Gable Steveson (1.05) vs Sean Sharaf (10.25) (Heavyweight)

Not since Brock Lesnar back in 2008 had there been a heavyweight debut as highly anticipated as Steveson stepping inside the Octagon for the first time at UFC 329 in July.

The Olympic gold medal-winning wrestler was the biggest favourite in UFC history for his fight against Elisha Ellison and he delivered by mauling him.

Surprisingly, he didn’t shoot for a single takedown; instead, he showed his willingness to stand and bang, and his nasty side, as he stopped Ellison in the first round to move to 4-0 in his MMA career with four knockouts.

Sharaf (4-2) has never been to a third round, with all of his wins coming in the first round. The problem for him is he’s coming off back-to-back second-round knockout losses to Junior Tafa and Steven Asplund.

He’s nothing more than a lamb to the slaughter. 

Prediction: Steveson by knockout.

Best Bet: Steveson by KO/TKO/DQ (1.25).

Note: Odds subject to change.

Quintin van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 20 years of experience.

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