Surging top-15 bantamweights Raul Rosas Jr and Raoni Barcelos will look to seize the moment when they headline UFC Vegas 121 at the Meta APEX on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.
ALSO READ: August’s Top 10 UFC Knockouts.
Veteran middleweights Rodolfo Vieira and Robert Bryczek face off in the co-main event, while Brady Hiestand returns from a lengthy layoff to take on Rinya Nakamura at bantamweight.
Plus, the winners of season 34 of The Ultimate Fighter will be crowned. Mehemmedeli Osmanli and Ilimbek Akylbek meet in the bantamweight final, and Melissa Amaya and Valesca Machado square off in the strawweight final.
MAIN CARD:
Sunday, September 27, 2:00 AM SAST
Raul Rosas Jr (1.64) vs Raoni Barcelos (2.38) (Bantamweight)
In mixed martial arts, every fighter’s journey is different. This weekend’s marquee matchup is a perfect example.
When Barcelos (22-5) started his professional mixed martial arts career in 2012, his opponent this weekend was eight years old. The Brazilian veteran has been fighting in the UFC for eight years and will be making his 16th walk to the Octagon.
Rosas Jr heads into just his 13th pro fight and yet both will main event a UFC card for the first time. For Rosas Jr, it’s another opportunity to show he’s the future, while for Barcelos, it’s a chance to derail another prodigious prospect.
Twenty-one-year-old Rosas has big dreams, including breaking Jon Jones’ record as the youngest champion in UFC history. “El Niño Problema” has done a good job of chasing that lofty goal, winning all but one of his seven fights inside the Octagon to date.
The Mexican prodigy broke the record briefly held by South Africa’s Cameron Saaiman as the youngest fighter ever to sign with the UFC when he debuted one month shy of his 18th birthday in 2022, and will this weekend become the youngest main eventer in promotional history.
The teenager made a fantastic first impression, submitting Jay Perrin to become the youngest UFC fighter ever to record a win. Following a decision loss to Christian Rodriguez in his next bout, Rosas has won five straight, most recently earning a unanimous decision over Rob Font in March to move to 12-1 and No. 12 in the rankings.
Like Barcelos, Font is a seasoned UFC campaigner, so it won’t be Rosas’ first rodeo against a vastly experienced Octagon warrior.
Similarly, Barcelos has burst the bubble of highly touted young guns in the past, most notably bouncing Payton Talbott from the ranks of the unbeaten last January.
Eighteen years Rosas’ senior and one spot below him in the rankings, Barcelos is also on a five-fight win streak, a red-hot run that includes a victory over former champion Cody Garbrandt.
His last four wins have all come on the scorecards, including his most recent triumph, which saw him pip Montel Jackson by split decision.
Rosas is primarily a grappler with 50% of his wins coming by submission. Barcelos, though, is well-rounded, has very good takedown defence (87%) and has never been submitted in the UFC.
Whether his gas tank holds up in this, a five-round fight, remains to be seen, but with his superior striking, craftiness and defensive grappling, Barcelos is an underdog worth backing.
Prediction: Barcelos by decision.
Best Bet: Barcelos at 2.38.
Alternative Bet: Barcelos by decision at 4.65.
Rodolfo Vieira (1.63) vs Robert Bryczek (2.30) (Middleweight)
The co-main event is a clash of styles pitting multi-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Vieira (11-5) against dangerous striker Bryczek (18-7).
Both men are looking to get back on track, so while they’ll likely experience a sense of urgency, they’ll have to be calm and calculated, as one mistake could mean the end of the fight.
A submission specialist, “The Black Belt Hunter” has claimed all but two of his wins by tapout, whereas his Polish opponent has a dozen knockouts to his name.
Bryczek appears to have more fight left in him and has solid takedown defence, so I fancy him to keep it on the feet and cash as an underdog.
Prediction: Bryczek by knockout.
Best Bet: Bryczek by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.85.
Alternative Bet: Bryczek at 2.30.
Mehemmedeli Osmanli (1.42) vs Ilimbek Akylbek (2.90) (Bantamweight)
Young guns with bright futures will engage in a shootout for The Ultimate Fighter season 34 bantamweight crown and UFC contract that comes with it.
Teammates on Team Bisping, they’ve taken different roads to the decider. Osmanli (12-1) was on the highway, winning both of his fights by stoppage, while Akylbek (10-3) took the dirt track in the form of decision wins.
A 22-year-old from Azerbaijan, “Ineffable” is a finisher of note with 10 stoppage wins in all, including eight by submission. Akylbek, a 23-year-old who’s made the move from Kyrgyzstan to Chicago, will be well prepared as he fights out of former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad’s camp.
However, Osmanli should be too much for him to handle and become the youngest Ultimate Fighter winner since Kelvin Gastelum in season 17.
Prediction: Osmanli by stoppage.
Best Bet: Osmanli by KO/TO/DQ at 3.90.
Alternative Bet: Osmanli by submission at 5.15.
Melissa Amaya (2.80) vs Valesca Machado (1.45) (Strawweight)
An undefeated prospect and a seasoned veteran, both part of Team Cormier, collide in The Ultimate Fighter season 34 strawweight final.
Amaya showed why she has the moniker “Mamba” by finishing Anna Melisano and Gigi Canuto in her quarter-final and semi-final bouts. Both of those ladies have since made their UFC debuts, so Amaya definitely has the quality to cut it in the big league.
A perfect 8-0, she’s looking to follow in the footsteps of two of her gym Sikjitsu’s biggest names, Michael Chiesa and Julianna Pena, by winning the tournament.
Machado (15-4) is battle-tested with more than double the number of fights as her opponent. Not only that, the 30-year-old is a former Invicta FC champion.
“Tina Black” stopped Natalia Alves in the quarter-finals and outworked recent UFC Paris winner Delphine Benouaich to punch her ticket to the finale.
Amaya will be in the UFC soon enough, but Machado’s experience should see her reign supreme.
Prediction: Machado by decision.
Best Bet: Machado by decision at 1.93.
Brady Hiestand (3.60) vs Rinya Nakamura (1.29) (Bantamweight)
Like the aforementioned Chiesa, Nunes and Machado, Hiestand (8-2) is a Sikjitsu product who reached the final of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2021.
Despite coming up agonisingly short, losing a split decision to Ricky Turcios, he made his UFC debut just over a year later and rattled off three straight wins on the big stage before being sidelined with a knee injury. We haven’t seen the well-rounded “Bam Bam” since his submission victory over Garrett Armfield in June 2024
Nakamura (10-1) won the inaugural Road to UFC bantamweight tournament in dominant fashion and started his UFC career with decision wins over Fernie Garcia and Carlos Vera.
“Hybrid” hit a speed bump at UFC 311, suffering the first loss of his career against Muin Gafurov, but bounced back in style with a 62-second knockout of Nathan Fletcher last August.
Nakamura is fast and agile and should be able to chip away and outgun a potentially rusty Hiestand.
Prediction: Nakamura by decision.
Best Bet: Nakamura by decision at 2.57.
Note: Odds subject to change.
Quintin van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 20 years of experience.
