Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Tour: South Africa vs New Zealand IV Preview and Prediction

The inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series will reach an epic crescendo when the Springboks and All Blacks collide in the fourth and final Test in Baltimore on Saturday (23:00 kick-off SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

ALSO READ: Bok Watch: Players in the Spotlight vs New Zealand in Baltimore.

The series has been a joy to watch as the top two teams in the world went hammer and tongs over 240 minutes of ultra-intense, physical, and pulsating Test match rugby in Mzansi.

Both teams deserve a ton of credit – Dave Rennie and his touring group for taking the fight to settled South Africa remarkably well, and Rassie Erasmus and his troops for reminding the world the Boks are at their best when their backs are against the wall.    

The record time and way in which Rennie has transformed the All Blacks back into a global force, and briefly back to No. 1 in the world rankings following their series-opening 33-16 triumph at Ellis Park, is nothing short of remarkable. Though they can no longer win the series, it’s already a massive success for the Kiwis.

Meanwhile, the Boks showed the pedigree, power and problem-solving prowess that made them double world champions to set the record straight with a 33-26 win in the second Test in Cape Town before taking control of the series with a 29-24 victory in the third Test in Soweto last weekend.

In the eyes of many, the series wrapped up at FNB Stadium. Indeed, it’s hard to justify a fourth Test – especially with it being staged in America. The organisers will try to convince fans that it’ll serve as an advertisement for the game ahead of the 2031 Rugby World Cup to be held in the USA, but frankly, it’s a money grab.

That said, the action on the field – the amplification of the over-a-century-long clash of styles between the sport’s biggest giants – has been so enthralling that no one will complain to watch the sides square off for a fourth time.

Erasmus has said the right things, noting that, “I know a lot of people said that this is the series here in South Africa, but it is not – we’ve played three games here and we’re one up, but the final game is still to come.

“I know we can’t lose it anymore because there’s no points difference or tries scored (as a tie-breaker). But the trophy was actually designed in two halves to be shared if it’s a draw. So, it’s game on.”

The Boks are in good shape, with Erasmus making minimal changes for the decider. Rennie, on the other hand, has little choice in changing personnel as the brutal series has taken its toll on the Kiwis.

After having shared a chartered flight, the Boks hit the ground in America high on momentum, whereas the All Blacks are limping into the clash at M&T Bank Stadium and will be without captain Ardie Savea and a number of other crocked first-choice players. 

Despite this, the New Zealanders are such great ball players that they’ll still be lethal. Kiwi player-turned-writer Ben Smith, who loves nothing more than to rile up South African rugby supporters, boasted on X that the All Blacks outscored the Boks 83-78 and by 13 tries to eight in the three Tests, while making 25 clean breaks to the Boks’ 18.

While Bennie Boy is seemingly missing the bigger picture, his point about the All Blacks’ attacking potency is taken, and as mentioned, they’ll remain dangerous. However, the series was always going to be a war of attrition and the Boks, with their superior depth, should seal the deal in Baltimore.

Prediction: South Africa by 10.

Suggested Bet: South Africa -6.5 at 1.87.